In the words of Paul Keating when he announced the 1996 election ‘Here we go again.’

The Federal Election campaign is well underway and many pundits have already picked a winner in Labor. However the polls have tightened after new preference deals, with only two points separating the Parties, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison holding an eleven-point lead over Opposition Leader Bill Shorten as preferred PM.

So what are the key seats that could impact the result?

Herbert – Margin 0.0%

In 2016 Labor won the seat of Herbert by 37 votes. The City of Townsville - which happens to be controversial mining company Adani’s headquarters - lies at the heart of the electorate. The prospective Adani mine would mean thousands of new jobs for a region with high unemployment. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole has ducked and weaved around supporting the project, but the Labor brand is generally associated with opposition to the project. This will hurt Labor’s chances of holding the seat.

Advoc8 Prediction – Coalition win.

Indi – Margin N/A (Retiring Independent)

With popular Independent MP Cathy McGowan retiring, Indi is up for grabs and is a seat the Coalition desperately wants back. The Liberals and Nationals are both running candidates and will preference each other at the ballot box. McGowan has anointed another Independent, Helen Haines, to take her place, however she’ll be relying on Labor preferences to get across the line.

Advoc8 Prediction – Too close to call.

Lindsay – Margin 1.1%

The resignation of Labor’s Emma Hussar amid a mountain of controversy has left Lindsay open for a possible Coalition win. With the NSW Election showing Labor’s brand remains unpopular in Western Sydney, it’s a seat the Coalition will be eyeing off. However, Labor’s candidate Diane Beamer is a dynamo. A former NSW Labor Minister, she has years of experience and is a polished operator. It will be tough for Liberal young-gun Melissa McIntosh to win the day.

Advoc8 prediction – Too close to call.

Longman – Margin 0.8%

With eight candidates running, Longman is certainly up for grabs, even for the minor parties. One Nation and the United Australia Party are both fielding candidates and the seat may be determined by the flow of preferences from their candidates. Incumbent Labor MP Susan Lamb will be hoping her personal profile can cement the seat for her, having won Longman at the 2016 federal election and again at a by-election in 2018 as a result of the federal citizenship debacle.

Advoc8 Prediction – Too close to call.

Dickson – Margin 1.7%

One of the most divisive members of the Coalition, Minister Peter Dutton is a constant target for the progressive media as well as activist groups like GetUp!. The group has poured hundreds of thousands into defeating Dutton, calling voters to elect pretty much anyone other than the incumbent. Dutton is a fighter and a survivor, and the strong ‘anti’ campaign against him may solidify support among voters annoyed with blow-in protesters telling them how to vote.

Advoc8 Prediction – Coalition hold.

Warringah – Margin 11.6%

While the margin looks healthy, Tony Abbott has admitted to being in the fight of his life against high-profile independent and Olympic skier Zali Steggall. Steggall has strong support in the local community and also through a concentrated Get Up! campaign. Steggall hasn’t had a free ride though, dogged by questions as to her true independence. Internal polling suggests the seat is on a knife-edge with a handful of preferences likely to determine the victor.

Advoc8 prediction – Coalition hold.

Corangamite – Margin 0.2%

Many believe Victoria will be an electoral bloodbath for the Coalition, particularly given the poor showing by the Liberals at the recent State Election. A long-time Liberal Party seat, Corangamite is in the balance and incumbent Sarah Henderson will be hoping her personal vote will be enough to hold on. The seat is one Labor is confident of taking and will be pouring in significant resources to secure a victory.

Advoc8 Prediction – Labor win.

Others

There are a number of other marginal seats up for grabs in this election, any one of which could determine who governs the country after May 18th.

Forde – Margin 0.6%

Currently Held – Coalition.

Advoc8 prediction – Labor win.

Gilmore – Margin 0.7%

Currently Held – Coalition.

Advoc8 Prediction – Too close to call.

Capricornia – Margin 0.6%

Currently Held – Coalition.

Advoc8 prediction – Labor win.

Cowan – Margin 0.7%

Currently Held – Labor.

Advoc8 prediction – Labor hold.